Longitudinal study of COVID-19 stay-at-home orders' impact on deaths of despair in the United States, January 2019 to December 2020.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic led to increase in mental health problems and substance misuse. Yet, little is known about its impact on rates of deaths of despair (death by suicide and drug overdose). Our objective was to determine the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home orders on deaths of despair using population-level data. We hypothesized that the longer duration of stay-at-home orders would increase rates of deaths of despair. METHODS: Utilizing quarterly suicide and drug-overdose mortality data from the National Center for Health Statistics from January 2019 through December 2020, we estimated fixed-effects models to examine the effects of the duration of stay-at-home orders as differentially implemented in 51 jurisdictions in the United States on each outcome. RESULTS: Controlling for seasonal patterns, the duration of jurisdictional-level stay-at-home order was positively associated with drug-overdose death rates. The duration of stay-at-home orders was not associated with suicide rates when adjusting for calendar quarter. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest an increase in age-adjusted drug-overdose death rates in the United States from 2019 to 2020 possibly attributable to the duration of jurisdictional COVID-19 stay-at-home orders. This effect may have operated through various mechanisms, including increases in economic distress and reduced access to treatment programs when stay-at-home orders were in effect.

Impact of the CARE Tipping Point Program in Nepal on adolescent girls' agency and risk of child, early, or forced marriage: Results from a cluster-randomized controlled trial.

Background: Girl child, early, and forced marriage (CEFM) persists in South Asia, with long-term effects on well-being. CARE's Tipping Point Initiative (TPI) sought to address the gender norms and inequalities underlying CEFM by engaging participant groups on programmatic topics and supporting community dialogue to build girls' agency, shift power relations, and change norms. We assessed impacts of the CARE TPI on girls' multifaceted agency and risk of CEFM in Nepal. Methods: The quantitative evaluation was a three-arm, cluster-randomized controlled trial (control; Tipping Point Program [TPP]; Tipping Point Plus Program [TPP+] with emphasized social-norms change). Fifty-four clusters of ∼200 households each were selected from two districts (27:27) with probability proportional to size and randomized evenly to study arms. A pre-baseline census identified unmarried girls 12-16 years (1,242) and adults 25 years or older (540). Questionnaires covered marriage; agency; social networks/norms; and discrimination/violence. Baseline participation was 1,140 girls and 540 adults. Retention was 1,124 girls and 531 adults. Regression-based difference-in-difference models assessed program effects on 15 agency-related secondary outcomes. Cox-proportional hazard models assessed program effects on time to marriage. Sensitivity analyses assessed the robustness of findings. Results: At follow-up, marriage was rare for girls (<6.05%), and 10 secondary outcomes had increased. Except for sexual/reproductive health knowledge (coef.=.71, p=.036) and group membership (coef.=.48, p=.026) for TPP + versus control, adjusted difference-in-difference models showed no program effects on secondary outcomes. Results were mostly unmoderated by community mean: gender norms, household poverty, or women's schooling attainment. Cox proportional hazard models showed no program effect on time-to-marriage. Findings were robust. Discussion: Null findings of the Nepal TPI may be attributable to low CEFM rates at follow-up, poor socio-economic conditions, COVID-19-related disruptions, and concurrent programming in control areas. As COVID-19 abates, impacts of TPP/TPP + on girls' agency and marriage, alone and with complementary programming, should be assessed. Trial registration number: NCT04015856.

Compounding inequalities: Adolescent psychosocial wellbeing and resilience among refugee and host communities in Jordan during the COVID-19 pandemic.

PURPOSE: The COVID-19 pandemic and associated risk-mitigation strategies have altered the social contexts in which adolescents in low- and middle-income countries live. Little is known, however, about the impacts of the pandemic on displaced populations, and how those impacts differ by gender and life stage. We investigate the extent to which the pandemic has compounded pre-existing social inequalities among adolescents in Jordan, and the role support structures play in promoting resilience. METHODS: Our analysis leverages longitudinal quantitative survey data and in-depth qualitative interviews, collected before and after the onset of COVID-19, with over 3,000 Syrian refugees, stateless Palestinians and vulnerable Jordanians, living in camps, host communities and informal tented settlements. We utilize mixed-methods analysis combining multivariate regression with deductive qualitative tools to evaluate pandemic impacts and associated policy responses on adolescent wellbeing and mental health, at three and nine months after the pandemic onset. We also explore the role of support systems at individual, household, community, and policy levels. FINDINGS: We find the pandemic has resulted in severe economic and service disruptions with far-reaching and heterogenous effects on adolescent wellbeing. Nine months into the pandemic, 19.3% of adolescents in the sample presented with symptoms of moderate-to severe depression, with small signs of improvement (3.2 percentage points [pp], p<0.001). Two thirds of adolescents reported household stress had increased during the pandemic, especially for Syrian adolescents in host communities (10.7pp higher than any other group, p<0.001). Social connectedness was particularly low for girls, who were 13.4 percentage points (p<0.001) more likely than boys to have had no interaction with friends in the past 7 days. Adolescent programming shows signs of being protective, particularly for girls, who were 8.8 percentage points (p<0.01) more likely to have a trusted friend than their peers who were not participating in programming. CONCLUSIONS: Pre-existing social inequalities among refugee adolescents affected by forced displacement have been compounded during the COVID-19 pandemic, with related disruptions to services and social networks. To achieve Sustainable Development Goal targets to support healthy and empowered development in adolescence and early adulthood requires interventions that target the urgent needs of the most vulnerable adolescents while addressing population-level root causes and determinants of psychosocial wellbeing and resilience for all adolescent girls and boys.